Patterns of Conflict
Parts 1 & 2 · slide sources

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Cover · cover

1986 original, PDF p.1 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.1

Lecture opening

Patterns of
Conflict

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Slide 1 · 01

1986 original, PDF p.3 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.2

Patterns of Conflict

Outline

  • Point of departure
  • Historical snapshots
  • Categories of conflict
  • Synthesis
  • Application
  • Wrap-up
  • Epilogue
  • Sources
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Slide 2 · 02

1986 original, PDF p.4 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.3

Patterns of Conflict

Focus and direction

Mission

  • To make manifest the nature of moral-mental-physical conflict
  • To discern a pattern for successful operations
  • To help generalize tactics and strategy
  • To find a basis for grand strategy

Intent

To unveil the character of conflict, survival, and conquest.

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Slide 3 · 03

1986 original, PDF p.5 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.4

Patterns of Conflict

Point of departure

Air-to-air

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Slide 4 · 04

1986 original, PDF p.6 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.5

Patterns of Conflict

Generalization

Need fighter that can both lose energy and gain energy more quickly while out-turning an adversary.

In other words, suggests a fighter that can pick and choose engagement opportunities—yet has fast transient (“buttonhook”) characteristics that can be used to either force an overshoot by an attacker or stay inside a hard turning defender.

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Slide 5 · 05

1986 original, PDF p.7 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.6

Patterns of Conflict

Idea expansion

Idea of fast transients suggests that, in order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries—or, better yet, get inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle or loop.

Why? Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries—since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm or patterns they are competing against.

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Slide 6 · 06

1986 original, PDF p.8 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.7

Patterns of Conflict

Examples

  • Blitzkrieg vs. Maginot Line mentality
  • F-86 vs. MiG-15
  • Israeli raid
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Slide 7 · 07-action

1986 original, PDF p.9 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.8

New conception

New conception — 1986 slide 7Action at left and Idea at right are paired by facing braces; a lower brace groups both above the shared Goal. The handwritten addition “and impede his actions” is included. Braces are associations, not directional arrows. New conceptionActionIdeaExploit operations and weapons that:Generate a rapidly changingenvironment (quick/clearobservations, orientation anddecisions, fast-tempo, fasttransient maneuvers, quick kill)Inhibit an adversary’s capacity toadapt to such an environment (cloudor distort his observations,orientation, and decisions andimpede his actions)Simultaneously compress own time andstretch-out adversary time to generatea favorable mismatch in time/ability toshape and adapt to change.GoalCollapse adversary’s system into confusion and disorder by causing him to overand under react to activity that appears simultaneously menacing as well asambiguous, chaotic, or misleading.7

The 1986 chart pairs Action and Idea, then gathers both under Goal. The video presents Goal separately in the following interval. The handwritten “and impede his actions” is included. Pan horizontally for detail on narrow screens.

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Slide 13 · 13

1986 original, PDF p.15 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.14

Sun Tzu · The Art of War

Historical pattern — Sun Tzu, The Art of War, around 400 BC; 1986 slide 13Seven original themes at left and four strategy statements at right, paired by facing braces. A single lower brace joins both columns to two desired outcomes. Original 1986 themes, not the expanded 1991 theme pairs shown in the video. Historical patternSun Tzu · The Art of War · around 400 BCThemeStrategyHarmonyDeceptionSwiftness-of-ActionFluidity-of-ActionDispersion/ConcentrationSurpriseShockProbe enemy’s organization anddispositions to unmask his strengths,weaknesses, patterns of movement andintentions.“Shape” enemy’s perception of world tomanipulate his plans and actions.Attack enemy’s plans as best policy. Nextbest disrupt his alliances. Next bestattack his army. Attack cities only whenthere is no alternative.Employ Cheng and Ch’i maneuvers to quicklyand unexpectedly hurl strength againstweaknesses.Desired outcome• Subdue enemy without fighting• Avoid protracted war13

Around 400 BC, as dated on the slide. The 1986 chart’s seven themes are retained here. The video displays later expanded theme pairs; those are distinguished below. Pan horizontally for detail on narrow screens.

Later theme wording shown in the recording
  • Harmony and trust
  • Justice and well being
  • Inscrutability and enigma
  • Deception and subversion
  • Rapidity and fluidity
  • Dispersion and concentration
  • Surprise and shock

The 2026 Richards/Spinney deck labels this revision “JRB, 1/1991.” These are not silently substituted into the 1986 recreation above.

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Slide 7 · 07-goal

1986 original, PDF p.9 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.8

Goal

Collapse adversary’s system into confusion and disorder causing him to over and under react to activity that appears simultaneously menacing as well as ambiguous, chaotic, or misleading.

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Slide 10 · 10

1986 original, PDF p.12 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.11

Patterns of Conflict

Human nature

Goal

Survive, survive on own terms, or improve our capacity for independent action.

The competition for limited resources to satisfy these desires may force one to:

Diminish adversary’s capacity for independent action, or deny him the opportunity to survive on his own terms, or make it impossible for him to survive at all.

Implication

Life is conflict, survival, and conquest.

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Slide 11 · 11

1986 original, PDF p.13 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.12

Patterns of Conflict

Comment

In addressing any questions about conflict, survival, and conquest one is naturally led to the

Theory of evolution by natural selection
and
the conduct of war

since both treat conflict, survival, and conquest in a very fundamental way. In this regard, many sources (a few on natural selection and many on war) are reviewed; many points of view are exposed.

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Slide 12 · 12

1986 original, PDF p.14 · Matched Richards/Spinney revision, p.13

Patterns of Conflict

Impression

In examining these many points of view one is bombarded with the notion that:

  • It is advantageous to possess a variety of responses that can be applied rapidly to gain sustenance, avoid danger, and diminish adversary’s capacity for independent action.
  • The simpler organisms—those that make-up man as well as man working with other men in a higher level context—must cooperate or, better yet, harmonize their activities in their endeavors to survive as an organic synthesis.
  • To shape and adapt to change one cannot be passive; instead one must take the initiative.

Put more simply and directly: the above comments leave one with the impression that variety/rapidity/harmony/initiative (and their interaction) seem to be key qualities that permit one to shape and adapt to an ever-changing environment.

With this impression in mind together with our notion of getting inside an adversary’s O-O-D-A loop we will proceed in our historical investigation.

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